Sea Change at Copenhagen

Anyone who has run a committee knows how difficult it is to get consensus on anything. And anyone who has been involved with the debate on global warming will know how particularly difficult it is to get consensus on reductions in CO emissions..

The reason for this is understandable. Whatever action we take will affect some people more than others. Plus there is no perfect action on the power point presentation yet. Some of the schemes over the past few years have been shown to be completely ineffectual— not stopped rising emissions anyway.

But when sixteen and half thousand people converge on the city of Copenhagen this week—sceptics, alarmists and fence sitters alike—they will all have something in common. And that is an unease for the welfare of the planet we inhabit.

Whatever your views on whether we’re responsible or not for disrupting the balance of atmospheric gases which has provided us to date with the necessary living conditions to survive and develop as a species, the fact is that something like a change in ocean current could reverse that irrevocably.

We do have access to technologies which can provide cleaner energy, we do have the will to replant and restore the rainforests and we can cut down drastically on unnecessary landfill waste with just small changes in our consumption.

Whether the US, China, India can yet agree to work together or not, I believe next week will mark the beginning of at least one welcome sea change. And that is the profound transformation of attitude towards the environment. We now know that we should be extremely grateful to be here at all.

Are you going to Copenhagen?

The trickiest issue to address in global warming is that of burden sharing. We know we all have to address our carbon emissions but which countries must make the biggest cuts is always the sticking point in all discussions. Who should it be? The already developed countries - the US being a prime example - who have profited by using up so much of the world's resources already or the new economies who are just getting going on a modernisation programme. What is fair? Who should cut back first? It's a toughie. And this is where Denmark comes in.

On the 6th December around 15,000 people are expected to arrive in Copenhagen for a climate conference In 2012 the Kyoto Protocol is set to expire and it is at this two week meeting in Denmark that some of the world's leading figures in climate change will get together to discuss just this sort of thing. Copenhagen 2009 is all about getting the momentum up - or keeping the momentum up - driving forward on this vital pact which we all hope can save the planet or rather save the planet from what we are doing to it.

So this lively city with its jazz bands and easy atmosphere has become the centre for anyone wanting to discuss Kyoto global warming and of course all it entails. As far as the Danes are concerned this meeting in December that they are hosting is all about our future.

A wind turbine will generate all the energy or the delegates. That will avoid some of the expected criticism about the large number of people flying in from all over the world to discuss this burning question. We are heating up and we are responsible. What are we going to do about it? And until we arrive at that decision even in Copenhagen it’s just business as usual!

Prince Charles and the Frog

If you are campaigning to the public to get them to help save the planet what are the best ways to do it?

Well there are several different approaches you can take. You can go the scary route like the Prince of Wales did in Brazil recently saying in a speech we only have 100 months left to change our ways or else! Then he went down the comic route....lashings of humour whether intentional or not with his You Tube 'Save the Forest' video featuring amongst other celebrities Prince William and Prince Harry and a digitalised South American frog.

Another completely different approach - an unusually positive one - has been taken by a rural campaigning group here in the UK ....they are showing pictures of beautiful countryside ....a bit like this one but nicer.... saying that this is how we will be in fifteen years time because we are going green and we all will have gone back to living how we used to do a hundred years or so ago as model citizens. A very different approach...

But with a survey by the US Pew Research conducted in 2006 showing how little we cared about global warming at all across the world - the Japanese came out on top of that with 66 per cent of them concerned; the Chinese scored 20 out of 100 and the US came out bottom with just 19 per cent of Americans giving any damn about it at all it is obvious that we desperately need our awareness raising campaigns to hit home.

Since then, however, attitudes have begun to change. Maybe the global recession does have something to do with the downturn in sales of luxury goods ..particularly gas guzzling items but just maybe - hopefully - it is also a growing awareness that whatever approach we have used on our campaigning the message is out there that we must act together to save our planet and we must do so quickly.

Black Carbon

Black carbon! It sounds like bad news...and it is and, as far as the Arctic is concerned..it is very bad news - probably responsible for half if not more of the increase in the warming in that region over the past 120 years.

Are we considering black carbon seriously enough? Well, what is it? It's a form of soot, a product of the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels or the burning of coal..wood..dung.. That sort of thing. The Arctic is particularly sensitive to it. It darkens the ice and the snow and this in turn affects the Arctic's ability to reflect light. Therefore the ice absorbs heat and this all has been contributing to the reduction in summer ice we are now seeing. As well as that black carbon in the atmosphere absorbs solar radiation and converts that to more heat. So it contributes to our changing climate in at least two ways. And it is no surprise that black carbon is the second leading cause of global warming after CO2.

Now ...unlike carbon dioxide .. black carbon remains in the atmosphere for days or weeks at the very most but with the melting of the Arctic ice much quicker than previously expected - and this melting of the ice being one of the climate "tipping points" ...and with black carbon known to be responsible for much of this damage some scientists are now suggesting that this problem should be addressed.

So… immediate reductions in black carbon could indeed be the white knight of climate change - even a rescue plan. Because...at least this would bring about a more immediate result in the Arctic . And quick responses are just what we need right now!

Antarctica Appeal

We produce around 32 billion tons of CO2 each year .Out of that about 15 actually stays in the atmosphere contributing to climate change. The oceans, forests, vegetation and soil store the rest of that CO2. So obviously if this current storage facility starts declining we are in more trouble than before. Out of these carbon sinks about a quarter of the carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans... and the biggest ocean for this is the Southern Ocean which surrounds Antarctica.

Recently scientists have reported that this large volume of water now only able to absorb a fraction of the CO2 it use to. CO2 needs to be stored at below 300 metres to stay there permanently. It is reckoned that the stormy seas being whipped up by higher wind speeds which are themselves a by-product of the changing climate is causing the mixing of deep water with the shallower water which absorbs less of this greenhouse gas. I

t is like some vicious circle - which we are looking desperately to address. While doing so we must galvanize ourselves and our Governments to work harder on reducing emissions.

To Russia With Love From Denmark

Russia has begun to work on modernising its inefficient power plants and that's thanks to The Danes. The good news about this is that Russia is one of the world's highest emitters of green house gases. Much of this however is due to antiquated inefficient industrial centres. Supplying heat and hot water for the public sector, accounts for a staggering 45 per cent of Russia’s domestic energy usage. So any clean up operation like the Danish venture in Kirov which will reduce emissions form 100 of these leaky power stations is a step along the right path.

So what's in it for Denmark? Well, they're in fact buying emissions reductions units from Russia which is providing the investment for this venture and this will allow them...Denmark...expansions within their Kyoto agreements.

Now.. not only will this operation reduce CO2 emissions from Russia obviously it will also conserve to some degree some natural gas. Russia is in fact the largest exporter of natural gas in the world. ..but with only about fifty years of supply left ..in the pipeline.. so to speak it is not only in the interests of the Russian people to rejuvenate their plants and so waste less of this precious resource but aso it will keep the cost of gas to Europe at a lower price.

Well... no incentives maybe then for Europeans to cut usage with cheaper gas you, may well say... But surely over all this is a positive move and a sign of Russia's endorsement of initiatives to halt climate change.

High Rivers Run Low

Not only are the rivers at the lowest point on earth that's the Dead Sea - under threat because of global warming but also those that run from higher up ... particularly the Tibetan Plateau. That's the largest, highest area in the world today and the source of many major rivers in Asia .rivers which flow from China to Pakistan.

Over the past 40 years the glaciers on this plateau have been melting. In fact they have receded nearly 200 square kilometres due to rising temperatures. The knock -on effect is that rivers are starting to run lower.

One example is the River Yangtze.... China's longest river. Scientists have calculated a loss of nearly 1 billion cubic metres of water. This is not a short term problem because the melting glaciers actually replenish these rivers. However, long term the effects will become more obvious leading to a change in the ecosystem of the area which is of grave concern to us all.

With Tibet the only true source of fresh water to Asia China’s is responding by building a range of reservoirs to catch the glacial melt..the precious, needed water that would otherwise run off into the desert and be wasted…. but long term it seems that global cooperation on solutions to halt climate change by reducing emissions now....is imperative for all of us.

More Fusion Research Jobs

Firstly the fact that America is committed to leading the way on green issues is commendable and exciting because how America behaves has always influenced others. Some form of fusion has the true potential to solve the world’s energy crisis. So far decades of research have generated little more than fascination with its possibilities and yet there are those who believe that we could be a lot closer to a breakthrough on this advanced technology than we think....with all the clever brains in America it would be great to see more investment and focus on this essential research Also with the public now quite rightly a bit sceptical about the feasibility of providing energy for everyone using wind and solar, biofuels because of our rapidly expanding world population and with the concern about the future conflicts that may erupt over land use it would be good to put together a strategic team who could draw up a fifty to one hundred year power plan to work to.. .how their recycling and weatherboarding is generally going to help come up with some long-term solution. Mr Obama and your good self campaigned brilliantly with the phrase 'we can' and many of us believe that yes, you can! You can come up with answers to the world's energy crisis. So good luck!

Canada softened by US

Canada is ready to talk with the US on tackling global warming which is fantastic news because it seems that President Obama's commitment to go all out to 'green' America may encourage this other great nation to do the same.

The history behind this is that Canada had agreed years ago to reduce CO2 to 6.0 percent below their 1990 levels by 2012 But instead and recently in particular emissions have increased quite enormously. In 2007 Canada revised their previous target saying that their levels were unattainable and the expectations of a former adminstration were not realistic. In fact this reversal of attitude stemmed more from the US position at the time than anything because Canada and the US are the world's largest trading partners and with America's refusing to comply with Kyoto Canada..not wanting to be disadvantaged .. pulled back a bit.

However with the change in US administration has come a softening of position from Canada and a fresh and more optimistic approach to tackling this problem of their emissions which is good news because Canada is in fact one of the greatest consumers of energy per capita. Much of their energy goes to driving cars...heating homes...operating factories but there are also huge emissions from Alberta's energy intensive tar sands...and the effects of global warming on Canada are many as there are ...right across the world. With Canada it is possibly wildland fires... Their fires have been trending up over the past forty years as temperatures have been rising. Now not only do these wildfires reap human devastation We saw this past week in Melbourne the terrible, terrible loss of life when fires broke out in temperatures of 46.4 degrees and heard of 100 kmh hot winds spreading the fire Canada has similar problems to face..it certainly has had these problems in the past.

Deforestation..however it happens... whether it be by logging... or by these wildfires which are caused by increasing temperatures...the global environmental implications are huge. As we are all in this together, the spirit of the cooperation emerging from North America..to the global problem we face is very encouraging indeed.

Don't Snow Down on Kyoto

“How can we be experiencing global warming,” people ask , ‘When we have conditions like this and we are searching around for warm scarves and boots?”

Right now in the UK we have had the coldest snowiest spell for twenty years. But there are those who believe that despite these cold spells climate change is real and is our responsibility and we should be taking extreme action now and they say that the pattern of warming is long term and that there is obviously short term natural variation and in fact the tendency to look for signs of climate change in the form of temperature rise from year to year can play into the hands of climate sceptics who have used the recent cooler world temperatures as their evidence that global warming stopped in 1998 and that our heating globe is no more than a fantastic myth perpetrated for a dozen or so different reasons. ..but the fact is that we do know we are experiencing extremes in weather right across the world and possibly this is because of the distribution of the energy that has built up as a result of our heating up our globe.

Blown Away in UK

When we think of hurricanes or cyclones we automatically think of the tropics. But Powerful winds could threaten both UK and Europe with the potentially destructive force of a tropical category four hurricane. And all because of global warming.

Why is this happening? There have been large scale changes in the atmosphere itself for example the boundary of the troposphere – where all the weather occurs - has moved higher by 900 feet.

Also the Hadley Cells – the circulation pattern – rising near the Equator – polewards motion in higher up and then descending in the subtropics - have expanded towards the poles by one degree of latitude or 60 nautical miles over the last thirty years.
That change represents a huge volumetric increase in stored heat energy which must be recycled to the poles one way or the other’. It is as if the extra tropic cyclones are part of the planets way of redistributing it.

Last Summer the Global Warming Alliance held a conference at the Institute of Physics Our research has shown an increase in total energy of tropical cyclones of seventy percent, while wind strength itself has increased by fifteen percent. Such an increase in velocity plays out as a doubling in aeronautical force and even more in destructive damage..

The deadly storms that pounded southwest France and northeast Spain this past week end took at least 12 lives. Should these winds hit more densely populated countries and in particular those who are not accustomed to dealing with them these numbers could be greatly increased.

Over the past ten years eighteen ETCs made landfall. We are also seeing typhoon twins or two storms one following another within a day or so. Uk for example, the geographical position where polar air masses meet tropical ones coming up from the equator makes it in particular a fertile breeding ground for tornadoes.

During the half century from 1948 to 1997 thirteen windstorms hit Europe, an average of one every three point eight years.The two most catastrophic in terms of human life, the storms of 1953 and 1962, had almost identical core pressures. Now we are getting extra tropic cyclones with pressures 12 millibars lower than that.

GWA Strong wind warning!

The Global Warming Alliance has issued a warning. Cat 1 Extra tropic Cyclone Alpha 01 heads towards U.K. with potentially gale force winds gusting up to 80 knots or 92 MPH expected along the Irish Sea coast line and across Scotland. An intense Atlantic low with a core pressure of 945 mbs is due to make landfall around midnight Saturday night 17th January . This is the first extra tropic cylone making landfall in 2009. For more information www.globalwarmingalliance.com

Yes We Can!

Yes we can reduce our greenhouse gas emissions says the Obama administration in the States. Nobel Prize-winning physicist Steven Chu, if his position is confirmed next week, says he is going to pursue all policies to address just that.

Firstly Mr Chu is committed to reducing U.S. dependence on foreign oil which is good news indeed for most Americans (for reasons of economy and security as well) but this fact alone has provoked a conflict of opinion. Senators from states with oil and gas reserves see this– that’s cutting back on foreign oil - as a fine opportunity to increase home production. Currently the US produces around 4 per cent of the world’s oil but that apparently doesn’t take into account potentially untapped resources. But Mr Chu’s focus is on weaning Americans off oil and gas altogether. There has been some concern that the effect the credit crunch has had in reducing the costs of cars combined with the drop in the price of oil has been reviving for example the market for gas guzzlers. But the new administration is intent on promoting more energy efficiency as part of their measures to reduce oil imports as well as encouraging the use of bio fuels and solar energy.

The US oil producers are therefore unhappy about the proposed cap-and-trade system in which oil refineries and industrial facilities that have high emissions will have to pay more than those that invest in technologies that curb emissions.

Two Giants Compare

What do the two highest carbon emitters - US and China – have in common apart from both being dependent on imported oil for their transport and using domestic coal to generate power and both being reluctant to reduce emissions? Well very little it would appear. Their energy expenditure patterns are completely dissimilar and reflect two totally different cultural habits. In the US more than 70 per cent of the emissions come from consumerism – as Americans are more inclined to borrow money if needs be and spend it on their homes and cars where as in China 70 per cent of the emissions come from factories making goods which are then exported. Because their citizens spend less on gas guzzling items. Steel production emits twice as much as Chinese households. Aluminium production takes up another large chunk.
Therefore if the US concentrates on consumer reductions such as upgrading the electricity grid, improving fuel economy and weatherizing homes to reduce their 70 per cent and China on reducing its energy-intensive manufacturing and moving to lighter services to reduce their 70 per cent then maybe both super nations will emerge from the global financial crisis with a greener perspective on our world future.