Flash Floods and Hot Cities

A couple of weeks ago I was in sunny La Napoule in France with my husband. Four days later, just up the road, 20 people were killed in the most extreme weather conditions the region has seen for twenty years.

Is this a side effect of global warming? And if it is, what can we do to prepare as it seems that nature has a way of selecting new and unexpected destinations to act out her wrath. Right across the world violent storms claim lives on an almost weekly basis. How many depends on the population.

No surprise city mayors in particular are concerned because of the vast numbers of people living in cities. A couple of years ago at the Institute of Physics we alerted London councillors to the possibility of an extra tropic cyclone hitting our city and the devastation that would cause.

New York has already had experience. In 2007 the Subway was paralysed during morning rush hour when flash floods deposited debris on the tracks; the same thing as happened in 1992.

Our problem? You can't climate-proof anywhere, no campsite, no village, no city.

But what you can do is continue to counter what we believe are the causes of many of these extreme weather incidents. And that’s global warming. Like reducing CO2.And you can also turn a disadvantage into a plus. Take city buildings. Buildings account for 75 % of city emissions. But much of the 150 million square meters of rooftop in New York is black tar. In the summer it bakes under the sun and compounds the heat warming of climate change. Then it the winter it cracks when it freezes. But it is also the perfect landscape for photovoltaic panels which produce clean, much needed city energy. So just one example of a win-win. Let’s hope we can find some more.

Bjorn Lomborg at the RSA

If you want to influence people around to your way of thinking then firstly you have to make some sort of empathetic connection with them. Bjorn Lomberg knows that. He also knows if he talks common sense he will get a favourable response.

For example ask an impoverished mother struggling to survive whether she would rather have food for her children this week or go without for the sake of climate change the answer is obvious. Bjorn Lomberg is right, our current needs take preference over the future.

Talk about how no one wants to give up creature comforts like heated houses, cars and air travel if they can help it and you’ll them nodding their heads. Again Lomberg is right.

But tell a room of environmentalists and activists that you believe like they do that we are responsible however for global warming and we should be investing full speed ahead in sustainable energy like geo-engineering – in fact anything effective and that’s when people get very angry with him. In fact walk out of meetings as they did last night at the RSA event chaired by the Duke of Edinburgh – stormed out without even a backward glance at the Prince.

Why? Because he causes the same sort of irritation as someone who damns with faint praise. 'Global warming is a problem but it is not that much of an issue,' is his view. There, there. Which is probably worse than the declaring himself a global warming sceptic. He sounds so plausible he can actually upset people more.

For example, how their hard earned taxes are being squandered on inefficiencies and green schemes that are useless. And how they are being manipulated and duped into thinking they are doing the right thing.

There is even some common sense in his vision that if people want to do ‘the right thing’ more people in the developing countries could be helped today by doing the opposite to what everyone is banging on about; reducing emissions. Maybe, just maybe he is right and that we are obsessed with this one panacea. Cut carbon, save the world. As he says quite correctly more people may die from heat as a result of global warming, but less perish from cold. So there could be some positive spin to our warming planet. All stuff which is perfectly plausible.

However, it is at that point where he becomes offensive by suggesting that all efforts on carbon reduction are futile and that public relations movements like Kyoto agreements are no more than hypocritical and costly gestures. As he goes on to elaborate, if we were interested in saving mankind then we would do so the way he suggests. If we want to stop people dying from heat, we can give them air conditioning. Concerned about malaria, pay for drugs.

But the problem is that he avoids the central issue. That empathising with people’s immediate concerns will only work so far. How no one can accurately foretell the tipping point, when our greed for natural resources drives us too far. How none of us will ultimately benefit from our continued use of irreplaceable natural resources. And if it hadn’t been for these dramatic scenarios – possibly a little overdone - we would not have begun the good trend of environmental concern that is genuinely underway. People the world over are now are aware that we need energy sources other than fossil fuels. The world population is aware that our rainforests are precious, that our coral reefs are poisoned and that sea levels will rise as glaciers melt.

And whatever personal preferences we hold for helping out those in need it should not veer from our focus of stemming climate change.

Hopefully we can continue discussing the way forward with an open mind and an optimistic attitude.

Are you going to Copenhagen?

The trickiest issue to address in global warming is that of burden sharing. We know we all have to address our carbon emissions but which countries must make the biggest cuts is always the sticking point in all discussions. Who should it be? The already developed countries - the US being a prime example - who have profited by using up so much of the world's resources already or the new economies who are just getting going on a modernisation programme. What is fair? Who should cut back first? It's a toughie. And this is where Denmark comes in.

On the 6th December around 15,000 people are expected to arrive in Copenhagen for a climate conference In 2012 the Kyoto Protocol is set to expire and it is at this two week meeting in Denmark that some of the world's leading figures in climate change will get together to discuss just this sort of thing. Copenhagen 2009 is all about getting the momentum up - or keeping the momentum up - driving forward on this vital pact which we all hope can save the planet or rather save the planet from what we are doing to it.

So this lively city with its jazz bands and easy atmosphere has become the centre for anyone wanting to discuss Kyoto global warming and of course all it entails. As far as the Danes are concerned this meeting in December that they are hosting is all about our future.

A wind turbine will generate all the energy or the delegates. That will avoid some of the expected criticism about the large number of people flying in from all over the world to discuss this burning question. We are heating up and we are responsible. What are we going to do about it? And until we arrive at that decision even in Copenhagen it’s just business as usual!

Antarctica Appeal

We produce around 32 billion tons of CO2 each year .Out of that about 15 actually stays in the atmosphere contributing to climate change. The oceans, forests, vegetation and soil store the rest of that CO2. So obviously if this current storage facility starts declining we are in more trouble than before. Out of these carbon sinks about a quarter of the carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans... and the biggest ocean for this is the Southern Ocean which surrounds Antarctica.

Recently scientists have reported that this large volume of water now only able to absorb a fraction of the CO2 it use to. CO2 needs to be stored at below 300 metres to stay there permanently. It is reckoned that the stormy seas being whipped up by higher wind speeds which are themselves a by-product of the changing climate is causing the mixing of deep water with the shallower water which absorbs less of this greenhouse gas. I

t is like some vicious circle - which we are looking desperately to address. While doing so we must galvanize ourselves and our Governments to work harder on reducing emissions.

To Russia With Love From Denmark

Russia has begun to work on modernising its inefficient power plants and that's thanks to The Danes. The good news about this is that Russia is one of the world's highest emitters of green house gases. Much of this however is due to antiquated inefficient industrial centres. Supplying heat and hot water for the public sector, accounts for a staggering 45 per cent of Russia’s domestic energy usage. So any clean up operation like the Danish venture in Kirov which will reduce emissions form 100 of these leaky power stations is a step along the right path.

So what's in it for Denmark? Well, they're in fact buying emissions reductions units from Russia which is providing the investment for this venture and this will allow them...Denmark...expansions within their Kyoto agreements.

Now.. not only will this operation reduce CO2 emissions from Russia obviously it will also conserve to some degree some natural gas. Russia is in fact the largest exporter of natural gas in the world. ..but with only about fifty years of supply left ..in the pipeline.. so to speak it is not only in the interests of the Russian people to rejuvenate their plants and so waste less of this precious resource but aso it will keep the cost of gas to Europe at a lower price.

Well... no incentives maybe then for Europeans to cut usage with cheaper gas you, may well say... But surely over all this is a positive move and a sign of Russia's endorsement of initiatives to halt climate change.

More Fusion Research Jobs

Firstly the fact that America is committed to leading the way on green issues is commendable and exciting because how America behaves has always influenced others. Some form of fusion has the true potential to solve the world’s energy crisis. So far decades of research have generated little more than fascination with its possibilities and yet there are those who believe that we could be a lot closer to a breakthrough on this advanced technology than we think....with all the clever brains in America it would be great to see more investment and focus on this essential research Also with the public now quite rightly a bit sceptical about the feasibility of providing energy for everyone using wind and solar, biofuels because of our rapidly expanding world population and with the concern about the future conflicts that may erupt over land use it would be good to put together a strategic team who could draw up a fifty to one hundred year power plan to work to.. .how their recycling and weatherboarding is generally going to help come up with some long-term solution. Mr Obama and your good self campaigned brilliantly with the phrase 'we can' and many of us believe that yes, you can! You can come up with answers to the world's energy crisis. So good luck!

Canada softened by US

Canada is ready to talk with the US on tackling global warming which is fantastic news because it seems that President Obama's commitment to go all out to 'green' America may encourage this other great nation to do the same.

The history behind this is that Canada had agreed years ago to reduce CO2 to 6.0 percent below their 1990 levels by 2012 But instead and recently in particular emissions have increased quite enormously. In 2007 Canada revised their previous target saying that their levels were unattainable and the expectations of a former adminstration were not realistic. In fact this reversal of attitude stemmed more from the US position at the time than anything because Canada and the US are the world's largest trading partners and with America's refusing to comply with Kyoto Canada..not wanting to be disadvantaged .. pulled back a bit.

However with the change in US administration has come a softening of position from Canada and a fresh and more optimistic approach to tackling this problem of their emissions which is good news because Canada is in fact one of the greatest consumers of energy per capita. Much of their energy goes to driving cars...heating homes...operating factories but there are also huge emissions from Alberta's energy intensive tar sands...and the effects of global warming on Canada are many as there are ...right across the world. With Canada it is possibly wildland fires... Their fires have been trending up over the past forty years as temperatures have been rising. Now not only do these wildfires reap human devastation We saw this past week in Melbourne the terrible, terrible loss of life when fires broke out in temperatures of 46.4 degrees and heard of 100 kmh hot winds spreading the fire Canada has similar problems to face..it certainly has had these problems in the past.

Deforestation..however it happens... whether it be by logging... or by these wildfires which are caused by increasing temperatures...the global environmental implications are huge. As we are all in this together, the spirit of the cooperation emerging from North America..to the global problem we face is very encouraging indeed.

Don't Snow Down on Kyoto

“How can we be experiencing global warming,” people ask , ‘When we have conditions like this and we are searching around for warm scarves and boots?”

Right now in the UK we have had the coldest snowiest spell for twenty years. But there are those who believe that despite these cold spells climate change is real and is our responsibility and we should be taking extreme action now and they say that the pattern of warming is long term and that there is obviously short term natural variation and in fact the tendency to look for signs of climate change in the form of temperature rise from year to year can play into the hands of climate sceptics who have used the recent cooler world temperatures as their evidence that global warming stopped in 1998 and that our heating globe is no more than a fantastic myth perpetrated for a dozen or so different reasons. ..but the fact is that we do know we are experiencing extremes in weather right across the world and possibly this is because of the distribution of the energy that has built up as a result of our heating up our globe.

Blown Away in UK

When we think of hurricanes or cyclones we automatically think of the tropics. But Powerful winds could threaten both UK and Europe with the potentially destructive force of a tropical category four hurricane. And all because of global warming.

Why is this happening? There have been large scale changes in the atmosphere itself for example the boundary of the troposphere – where all the weather occurs - has moved higher by 900 feet.

Also the Hadley Cells – the circulation pattern – rising near the Equator – polewards motion in higher up and then descending in the subtropics - have expanded towards the poles by one degree of latitude or 60 nautical miles over the last thirty years.
That change represents a huge volumetric increase in stored heat energy which must be recycled to the poles one way or the other’. It is as if the extra tropic cyclones are part of the planets way of redistributing it.

Last Summer the Global Warming Alliance held a conference at the Institute of Physics Our research has shown an increase in total energy of tropical cyclones of seventy percent, while wind strength itself has increased by fifteen percent. Such an increase in velocity plays out as a doubling in aeronautical force and even more in destructive damage..

The deadly storms that pounded southwest France and northeast Spain this past week end took at least 12 lives. Should these winds hit more densely populated countries and in particular those who are not accustomed to dealing with them these numbers could be greatly increased.

Over the past ten years eighteen ETCs made landfall. We are also seeing typhoon twins or two storms one following another within a day or so. Uk for example, the geographical position where polar air masses meet tropical ones coming up from the equator makes it in particular a fertile breeding ground for tornadoes.

During the half century from 1948 to 1997 thirteen windstorms hit Europe, an average of one every three point eight years.The two most catastrophic in terms of human life, the storms of 1953 and 1962, had almost identical core pressures. Now we are getting extra tropic cyclones with pressures 12 millibars lower than that.